Long before statistical whiz Nate Silver predicted the outcome of the 2012 presidential election and "Moneyball" became a household word, structural engineers employed the Monte Carlo method of ...

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) represents a significant evolution in the evaluation of nuclear power plant safety, integrating time-dependent models of system evolution with stochastic ...

The design and construction of capital projects can be extremely complex. Uncertainty and risk add to this complexity and, as a result, many projects experience significant cost overruns and schedule ...

Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSA), which was introduced in the 1970s as complement to deterministic safety analysis methods, is a well-established tool that supports design and safety assessment ...

Risk and uncertainty are rarely evaluated as an integral part of the planning process. An array of risks—from hydrocarbon potential and operating characteristics, to political or market factors—can ...

Cross-impact analysis is widely employed to inform management and policy decisions based on the formulation of scenarios which are defined as combinations of outcomes of relevant uncertainty factors.

Statistical models are playing an increasingly important role in risk analysis and helping the United States and other countries around the globe mitigate the effects of natural and man-made disasters ...

Although probabilistic risk analysis methods, a component of project risk management, have been regularly available to designer and construction practitioners since the early 1990s, their use is not ...

Risk management is defined as the systematic application of policies, procedures, and practices to the tasks of analyzing, evaluating, and controlling risk. In general it involves a three-step ...

National security experts said climate forecasters often focus on averages, or the most likely scenario, without determining the probability of an extreme climate shift Tell us what you don't know.